Problems and Prospects for Political and Economic Relations between Russia and the States of the Korean Peninsula in the 2020s
K. V. Ivanov
摘要
The article analyzes the current problems and relations of the Russian Federation with the DPRK and the Republic of Korea, and also assesses the prospects for the development of Russia's political and economic relations with the states of the Korean Peninsula in the coming years. The article notes that although until recently Russia's key partner on the Korean Peninsula, after Russia launched a special military operation in Ukraine in February 2022, relations with the Republic of Korea have significantly worsened in both the political and economic areas, despite the desire of South Korean businesses to maintain their positions in the Russian market as much as possible. Given the limited foreign policy maneuvering for the administration of the Republic of Korea, a moderately negative forecast can be given for the development of Russian-South Korean relations in the next few years. On the contrary, Russia's relations with the DPRK received a new impetus in 2022– 2023, largely due to the diplomatic activity of the parties and mutual visits of the heads of state, culminating in the signing of The Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in June 2024. Since the end of 2023, we can observe a rapid intensification of both political contacts, including at the regional and departmental levels, and economic cooperation in a wide range of economic sectors. The author notes that when assessing Russia's relations with the DPRK, it is necessary to take into account the low base effect. In addition, emphasis is placed on the fact that for both countries, strengthening the political and economic partnership is primarily a means of diversifying foreign policy assets in the face of external pressure. Therefore, despite the positive assessment of the prospects for the development of Russian-North Korean relations, it is necessary to realize that the level of development of these relations (both at the political and economic levels) has certain limits.
