NEW TRUMP’S “ISOLATIONISM”: WHAT SHOULD RUSSIA EXPECT IN THE BLACK SEA REGION AND EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN?

The article defines the principles of transformation of the US foreign policy after 2016 both at the global and regional levels, based on the analysis of the historical experience of American foreign policy and the main doctrinal documents; identifies the main reasons for the transformation of the foreign policy of the Donald Trump administration in the first presidential term and makes a forecast for the second. The combination of the systemic and geopolitical approaches in the methodology allowed for the creative application of the principles of dialectics inherent in the American foreign policy tradition: isolationism and interventionism, on the one hand, and political realism and idealism, on the other. The authors have come to the conclusion that US foreign policy will be based on greater independence from its allies, an emphasis on the use of force against competitors: China, Russia, Iran and North Korea — and will be aimed at forming a «balance of power» in various regions favorable to the United States, preventing control of any of the world’s regions by one power. The Black Sea and Mediterranean region is not singled out separately by the USA, however, it is part of three central areas for American foreign policy: Europe, the Middle East and Africa. This provides a certain frameworkfor the implementation of the Russian foreign policy course, which supposes dividing spheres of influence in the Black Sea region with Turkey and preventing presence of other actors in the region while simultaneously creating a favorable balance for itself in the Mediterranean region, especially in its eastern part, by expanding the circle of allies. At the same time, Russia’s foreign policy in this region should exclude a scenario in which the USA and/or its allies implement a historical analogy of the Crimean War and the Paris Peace Treaty of 1856